Market overview of the hottest plastic city in Chi

2022-08-26
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The third quarter market review of China Plastic City

(also comment on the market trend in September)

in the third quarter, the market situation of plastic raw materials was relatively serious, with the market rising and falling, quite calm, and basically in a downturn. Both petrochemical production enterprises and circulation enterprises are facing greater operating pressure and the threat of losses, which are highlighted as follows:

(I) the market trend is up and down, quite calm. Generally speaking, the increase is less and the decrease is more, but the range is not large, which is basically within the range of yuan/ton. For example, the five major categories of general plastics have increased and decreased, while the five major categories of engineering plastics have fallen in a straight line

(II) most varieties are low and stable, and a few varieties are short-term concussion, but the range is limited. Since the beginning of the third quarter, the wire drawing materials in low-density polyethylene, linear low-density polyethylene and high-density polyethylene have rebounded in early July. In early and middle August, PVC and polystyrene prices rose in varying degrees. After the middle of September, ABS resin began to recover slowly, especially imported materials, while PVC suddenly soared

(III) show asynchrony. First, the market trend of similar varieties is not synchronized. As for PE products, LDPE, LLDPE and wiredrawing HDPE have increased for a short time, while injection molding HDPE has been in a downturn; Second, the same product is not synchronized in different regions. For example, PS category has experienced a short-term rise in coastal areas such as Yuyao China plastic city and Guangzhou plastic market, but it has hardly seen a rise in the northeast, northwest and other mainland areas

(IV) different from previous years. The plastic resin Market in the third quarter of this year, the closer it is to the traditional peak demand season, the weaker it is. Generally, the market starts in August. This year, August is not as good as July, and there is no obvious improvement in September. Supply and marketing manufacturers can not "fry" together. Even good news, such as the shutdown and maintenance of large petrochemical companies and the failure of devices in foreign petrochemical enterprises, did not effectively stimulate the market

September can be said to be spent in expectation. Polyethylene demand is still sluggish, and the market is stable and declining; Polypropylene still has no turnaround; After the PVC earthquake, the transaction was light; Polystyrene and ABS resins start slowly with limited strength. As for how the market will change in October after the long holiday, it is not clear at present

low density polyethylene (LDPE): after several consecutive months of downturn and decline, it began to rebound in July, and the market boom has significantly improved. Unfortunately, the strength of the rebound is limited, and the rebound time is relatively short, which failed to drive the rise of demand. The main driving force behind the rise in the price of LDPE is that Yanshan Petrochemical took the lead in raising the ex factory price before equipment maintenance, and the range is large, as high as yuan/ton, which led to the chain increase of other petrochemical enterprises. At the same time, it also promoted the short-term prosperity of market transactions. Due to the "hype" element is too strong and the lack of market support, the market cannot be promoted half a step in the end. 8. The decline continued in September, resulting in a "low high low" trend. The price level at the end of September was yuan/ton lower than that at the beginning of July

in the third quarter, all the problems of LDPE in China were interrelated, and the market changed little on the whole. However, from the perspective of specific changes, a temporary rise in prices can indeed stimulate the temporary prosperity of the market. Because there is no market for products in downstream industries and the operating rate is low, resulting in insufficient final demand, the temporary prosperity has become a "flash in the pan" short-term behavior

september, according to the traditional practice, is the peak season for low-density polyethylene demand, but its downturn has surprised many operators, and the characteristics of the peak season are very obvious. There are three outstanding performances: first, the number of users entering the market has not increased significantly, and large-scale transactions are still rare, still in the state of "use now buy now"; Second, petrochemical production enterprises are basically in a state of declining ex factory prices, poor sales and high inventories; Third, the circulation business is not highly motivated and has no intention of stocking up for goods. However, since the terrorist attacks on the United States on September 11, with the sharp rise in international oil prices, the low-density polyethylene market seems to have undergone some subtle changes. The prices of individual varieties show signs of recovery, which makes people feel that market sentiment has recovered. Even if there is no hope of a large rebound, at least it is possible to stop the decline and stabilize. After "10.1", the LDPE market may turn for the better

linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE): the performance in the third quarter was not satisfactory. It can be said that it went from bad to worse, and the strong momentum in the first half of the year no longer exists. In terms of price trend, after entering July, there was little change, and it basically operated normally within the range of yuan/ton; In the middle of August, the decline has appeared, but the range is limited, and it can still maintain the level of yuan/ton; After entering September, not only the decline accelerated, but also the decline increased, reaching yuan/ton. The dominant price in the market at the end of the month was yuan/ton

like LDPE, the situation in the third quarter of this year was somewhat abnormal. The closer to the peak demand season, the worse the market performance. The key reasons are: (1) the downstream market starts slowly, especially the operating rate of agricultural and plastic film production is relatively low, which inhibits the growth of final demand; (2) As the market has been low, the wait-and-see mood of users and dealers has become more intense, causing the enthusiasm to enter the market for storage to be frustrated; (3) Affected by the long-term downturn in the international market, a large number of low-cost imported goods have poured in, resulting in the market supply has always been in a saturated state. According to relevant statistics, in the first half of this year, the import volume of polyethylene resin was 1947900 tons, an increase of 58% over the same period last year, of which linear low-density polyethylene accounted for a large proportion

the market in September can be described in two sentences, namely, weak demand and declining prices. Specifically, the transaction is light, the competition is fierce, and the sales pressure increases. Therefore, the future market outlook is not optimistic

high density polyethylene (HDPE): the market changes more subtly, and the market trend changes from strong to weak, which also gradually disappoints market participants. It should be said that after entering July, the market did turn for the better. First of all, there is a significant increase in demand, which promotes active transactions, active market entry by users, and large-scale transactions are also common. Secondly, there is a shortage of available supplies, especially because Yangzi Petrochemical and Yanshan Petrochemical are about to carry out equipment maintenance. Therefore, Yangzi and Yanshan products are particularly popular, and even hoarding and reluctant sale occur in some distributors. Subsequently, the price also rose synchronously. However, what is lacking in beauty is the asynchrony of variety performance. Among them, wire drawing materials increased by yuan/ton, film and hollow materials increased by yuan/ton, while plastic injection fell by yuan/ton. As the market demand is not strong enough and the aftereffect is not sustainable, the market transaction also fades immediately, and the price barely maintains a relatively stable state

in August, the market situation of high-density polyethylene took a sharp turn for the worse. Instead of improving, it gradually became weak, and the market fell back again. The wire drawing material fell to yuan/ton, and the plastic injection was yuan/ton; Film and hollow material yuan/ton. There are two main reasons for the weakening of the market: (1) the digestive power is reduced, the export orders of downstream plastic products enterprises are significantly reduced, we have been serving customers for a long time, and the increase of domestic demand is limited, the operating rate is not high, and the demand for plastics has decreased or not increased; (2) Excess supply, especially imported resources, can be said to flood the market. It is reported that in the first half of this year, the innovation volume of imported HDPE resin was 807700 tons, with an increase of 54%

the market in September is basically the continuation of August. The pattern of weak demand has not changed, and the "peak season is not prosperous" is more obvious, which is indeed very disappointing. There was a falling sound in the first half of the month, but it stopped falling and stabilized in the second half of the month. Some varieties such as wire drawing materials have rebounded, but the overall price has not reached the level at the end of June. Market transactions basically maintained a "tepid" state. Before the market pattern of sluggish demand and abundant supply has not been changed, it is difficult for the HDPE market to turn around. If the domestic demand for HDPE cannot be effectively restored in October, the pressure of oversupply may lead to the decline of the market

polypropylene (PP): throughout the third quarter, the market showed a slow decline with a limited range. According to the specific analysis of time period: in July, due to the average decline of yuan/ton of homopolymer grade flat filament material and copolymer grade injection plastic, it was basically stable in August, some varieties fluctuated slightly, and rebounded slightly in September, but the price at the end of September was still slightly lower than that at the end of June

from the perspective of market trend, demand is weak and prosperous from time to time, which is reflected in sales. On the whole, it is weak and stable. Although there are fluctuations from time to time, there are no ups and downs

in September, the polypropylene market entered a new round of consolidation trend, and the price rebounded slightly, mainly due to the slight rebound in domestic demand and the impact of the increase in quotation in the international market. However, in October, there were some unstable factors in the polypropylene market: first, the United States suffered such a heavy blow, and the dollar exchange rate fell, which was not conducive to the export of Chinese products, especially polypropylene and other textiles, thereby reducing the demand for polypropylene, and the market will not have a big improvement; Second, the import volume increased rapidly in the first half of the year, with an increase of 29%. The total import volume was 1053000 tons, and the imported products were still arriving in the third quarter. It is reported that recently, more polypropylene has arrived at ports such as Shantou and Tianjin, and the price is relatively low, which will increase new pressure on market sales. Affected by this, it is estimated that the starting conditions are available in August, and the polypropylene market will be unbalanced in supply and demand in October, which is not conducive to the steady strengthening of the market

polyvinyl chloride (PVC): the market is volatile, and the shock of sharp decline and rise makes people feel sudden. After entering July, the long-term depressed PVC market is still disappointing. Instead of rising, there is a new round of sharp decline in prices. The decline of ordinary powder is as high as 700 yuan/ton. Mainly affected by the influx of cheap goods from the United States, Russia and other countries. In late July, without any positive factors, it suddenly rebounded by 300 yuan/ton, which triggered a short-term boom in market transactions. It is said that it was caused by the sharp increase in the ex factory price of chlor alkali in Shanghai

due to the different market conditions in the domestic market, the quotation of merchants is chaotic, and the quotation in the international market has not increased significantly. From August to early September, the market is basically in a state of consolidation

on September 11, after the terrorist attack on the United States, it can be said that overnight, PVC soared, with a range of nearly 1000 yuan/ton. It is said that the ex factory price of Shanghai chlor alkali product WS has been raised to 6200 yuan/ton, and Qilu Petrochemical and other manufacturers have also raised the ex factory price. Subsequently, the market quotation has also been raised, and the highest quotation was as high as yuan/ton. Watching the market change, after the price rises, the demand decreases significantly. According to the merchants, the actual trading volume is very scarce. In the next few weeks, according to the author's understanding, the actual transaction price of ordinary powder is between yuan/ton. According to the news from the international market, foreign offers have been significantly increased, among which the quotation level of Japanese manufacturers for October goods is 520 dollars/ton (CFR China, with a 40 day billing period), and the quotation level of Korean manufacturers for October goods is US dollars/ton (CFR China). This will have a positive impact on the stability and rise of current domestic market prices. It is estimated that the actual transaction price of PVC will exceed 6% in October

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