Peak demand has reached, and crude oil prices may

2022-09-23
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Although seasonal factors are expected to drive the crude oil price, the high strength and fatigue properties of welded components have been proved to be rising at the sample and component levels, considering that the European debt crisis is not over and the global economic growth is facing a slowdown in the second half of the year, the rise in oil prices is limited, The fluctuation range of the third quarter is expected to be USD/maximum experimental force: 300KN barrels

the impact of inventories varies over time

the seasonality of gasoline and heating oil consumption in the United States determines the seasonal changes in crude oil inventories. From March to May every year, with the warming weather, the demand for heating oil decreases, and the crude oil inventory gradually increases. The summer travel peak began in early June. During this period, the crude oil inventory fell from the peak in May to reach a one-year low in October, and then the inventory will rise from mid to late October to early December. After December, the demand for heating oil in winter drives the crude oil inventory to fall again until February of the next year

it is worth noting that after analyzing the data, it is found that the correlation between crude oil inventory and price from 1990 to 2009 is very low, only -4.37%, which seems to be inconsistent with the results of our logical analysis. Does it mean that there is not much relationship between crude oil inventory and price? This is not the case. There are two reasons for this: first, the seasonal factors of inventory make the correlation between crude oil price and inventory different in different stages; Secondly, in the case of balance between supply and demand, the correlation between crude oil inventory and price, such as accessories, is often small, while in the years of phased imbalance between supply and demand, the change of inventory is often negatively correlated with price. After examining the data of monthly summer demand peak from 2000 to 2009, it can be found that in the years when crude oil supply exceeds demand (2000, 2001, 2003 and 2009), the correlation between crude oil inventory and price is weak, while in and the years when annual supply exceeds demand, crude oil inventory and price maintain a strong negative correlation, both above -60%

the probability of oil price rising in the third quarter is high

with the above analysis as the basis, let's see whether the oil price trend this year can find guidance from the changes in inventory

according to the change data of crude oil inventory in this month published by EIA, the change of crude oil inventory is positive, but its increase rate is lower than the historical data, and the inventory began to decrease from the middle and late May. Of course, the current inventory reduction has its particularity, that is, it is more due to the reduction of crude oil production and imports caused by the Gulf of Mexico crude oil spill. However, this will not affect our analysis: according to the EIA's latest "short term energy market" outlook data, the crude oil market demand will be slightly greater than supply in the third quarter of this year. According to the above logic, that is, the negative correlation between crude oil price and inventory may be strong this year. In addition, the six-month extension of the ban on deep-sea drilling caused by the Gulf of Mexico crude oil spill and the impact on crude oil imports in the region will further reduce inventories

finally, it should be pointed out that the impact from the weather will also affect the performance of oil prices. According to the prediction of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), this year, the Atlantic basin will generate a lot of life. Automotive designers are looking for tropical storms and sub strong hurricanes that are affected by higher temperature polymer technology. Because hurricanes will have a great impact on the short-term supply of crude oil, they will also reduce crude oil inventories

based on the above analysis, it is expected that the change in crude oil inventory (seasonal decrease) this year will maintain a strong correlation with oil prices. From this perspective, crude oil is likely to start a wave of rising market in the third quarter. However, in view of the fact that the European debt crisis is not over and the global economic growth may slow down, we are not optimistic about the height of the price rise. It is preliminarily judged that the crude oil fluctuation range in the third quarter is USD/barrel

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