Peak demand and supply or peak property market in

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Supply and demand or the "golden nine silver ten" of the real estate market in the peak period of the year

supply and demand or the "golden nine silver ten" of the real estate market in the peak period of the year

September 7, 2015

[China paint information] since this year, the adjustment of real estate policies has been intensive. Following the "330 New Deal", the central bank's "five interest rate cuts and four reserve requirement reductions" and the purchase of foreign houses, on August 31, the three ministries and commissions jointly issued a notice to reduce the threshold of provident fund loans. From September this year, the down payment of provident fund loans for second homes has been reduced to 20%. Insiders said that this represents the fourth round of real estate stimulus policies since 2014 began to continue to upgrade. To stabilize the financial situation, it is necessary to stabilize the real estate market. It is expected that the situation of "double easing" of industrial policies and currencies will continue, and the corresponding positive will still occur frequently. It is not ruled out that further levering, tax reduction and other supporting policies will be introduced. Looking forward to the future, a series of favorable policies will add impetus to the recovery of the property market. The market may usher in the peak of supply and demand in the year, and house prices will show a trend of "rising in stability"

enthusiasm for house purchase was boosted

since September 2014, the proportion of down payment for house purchase was reduced for the first time. On August 31 this year, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development, the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank jointly issued a notice again. From September 1, for resident families who have a house and have settled the corresponding house purchase loan, in order to improve their living conditions and apply for the entrusted loan of housing provident fund to purchase houses again, the minimum down payment ratio was reduced from 30% to 20%. Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen can independently decide the minimum down payment ratio of applying for the entrusted loan of housing provident fund to purchase a second house on the basis of the unified national policies and in combination with local conditions

"under the condition that the interest rate has been reduced before, the interest rate of provident fund loan has been reduced by 0.25 percentage points, which makes the interest rate of provident fund loan itself relatively low. However, the policy has also reduced the down payment ratio of provident fund loan for the second set of housing, which is beyond the expectation of the market, and indeed reflects the greater stimulus at the policy level." Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of E-House Research Institute, said that the policy has positive significance for the real estate market. First, this year is a typical year of policy easing. The concentration of various easing policies may make the real estate market face a very good opportunity to buy a house in September. Especially for the second house buyers, the best house purchase actually comes at this time. Second, in the traditional "golden nine and silver ten" stage in September, the introduction of this policy will continue to boost the confidence of home buyers, especially some groups with improved housing demand will actively enter the market at this time. However, he pointed out that it is expected that in the actual implementation process, the third tier and lower tier cities will face better policy support, while the second tier cities may choose to improve the demand for housing purchase to adjust the provident fund loan policy. For first tier cities, including Beijing, the possibility of adjustment is not great, which will increase the pressure of rising house prices

Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline real estate, believes that the actual impact of the further reduction of the down payment of the provident fund is limited, because the provident fund is different from commercial loans. There are 10 large plastic markets all over the country with a maximum limit, for example, the maximum limit in Beijing is only 1.2 million. In this case, 20% of the down payment is unlikely to be achieved, but the psychological impact is large. For home buyers, the enthusiasm of gold, silver and ten home buyers to enter the market will continue to improve, There may be a wave of increase in the monthly market in the first and second tier cities

Haitong Securities believes that the current preferential intensity of second tier housing is basically close to 2008. Considering the low total house prices in third tier and below cities, the adjustment of provident fund policy is of substantial significance to supporting the industry to destock. At present, the final return of six years' research in both new construction and investment in third tier cities accounts for 50%-60%. Therefore, the recovery intensity of third tier cities directly determines the recovery intensity of real estate investment and the late recovery intensity of new construction, Considering that the proportion of the total amount of provident fund loans in the housing purchase funds in the third tier cities is significantly higher than that in the first and second tier cities, the new deal is of great significance to ensure the demand market in the third tier cities, reduce the inventory of new houses in the third tier cities and stabilize the late real estate investment

in addition, six ministries and commissions, including the Ministry of housing and urban rural development and the Ministry of Commerce, jointly issued new policies to make loose adjustments to some policies for foreign-invested real estate enterprises, overseas institutions and individuals to purchase houses, allowing overseas individuals to purchase commercial houses that meet their actual needs. Insiders pointed out that the relaxation of the limit policy may play a role in releasing purchasing power for the operation principle end projects of high battery extrusion testing machines in first tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen. The continuous introduction of favorable policies shows the government's urgent psychology of promoting the recovery of the real estate market. If the next recovery process of the real estate market is not as expected, it does not rule out that the government will continue to increase the stimulus policy of the real estate market

house purchase costs have been minimized

not only has the property market policy been continuously relaxed, but also the monetary liquidity has been continuously released since this year. On August 25, the central bank decided to reduce the benchmark interest rate of RMB loans and deposits of financial institutions by 0.25 percentage points, and reduce the RMB deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points. So far, there have been five interest rate cuts and four reserve requirement reductions in this round. The most direct stimulus to the property market is the "decline in monthly supply and direct reduction in interest" of home buyers, and the cost of credit has been reduced to the lowest

according to the data, taking the loan of 1million for 20 years as an example, the monthly supply will be reduced by 140 yuan after the interest rate cut. If from the end of November 2014, 1.2.2 after the end of the experiment: if the fire supply is stopped for 1 hour, the sample is still burning at the beginning of this round of interest rate reduction channel, the 20-year interest of one million yuan will be reduced by as much as 193000 yuan for buyers who cut interest rates five times according to the benchmark interest rate

"with the 'double decline' taking place, the further release of liquidity will boost the sustained and steady recovery of the property market in the second half of the year." Zhang Dawei believes that under the continuous loose monetary policy environment, the bank will increase the loan amount, and for home buyers, the interest rate discount of the first house will increase significantly. At present, the first home loan discount in the first tier cities is about 10%, and there is a possibility of 8.5% or 20% discount in the future. For home buyers, this direct credit stimulus has a great impact. The channel of interest rate reduction has been continuously opened, and the enthusiasm for house purchase continues to improve

Li Qiaoling of linkhome Research Institute believes that under the increasing downward pressure on the real economy and the decline of the stock market, the central bank has cut interest rates and reserve requirements continuously, and the three ministries and commissions have jointly reduced the down payment ratio of provident fund loans, which further confirms the previous speculation about stimulating real estate demand to boost the economy, and this similar means may still be introduced in the future. The real estate industry is expected to have a relatively loose policy environment this year and even next year. After the central bank cut interest rates for many times, interest rates have fallen to the lowest level in history, and the demand for first and improved house purchases has been effectively released. The trading volume of first tier cities and some second tier cities this year has basically doubled from last year. If the two sets of 20% down payment policy of provident fund are implemented, the demand of third and fourth tier cities with low house prices is expected to be driven. This year's "golden nine silver ten" and the real estate market before the end of the year are expected to maintain a high trading volume

new drivers for recovery have emerged one after another

benefiting from a series of favorable policies, the property market continues to show a recovery trend

according to the latest "100 city price index" report released by the China Index Research Institute in August 2015, the average price of (New) housing in 100 cities across the country in August was 10787 yuan/square meter, up 0.95% month on month, an increase of 0.41 percentage points over the previous month; Year on year, after ten consecutive months of year-on-year decline, house prices in Baicheng stopped falling this month, up 0.15%. Overall, the average price of residential buildings in Baicheng rose year-on-year and month on month for the first time in 16 months. The average price of newly-built houses in Beijing, Shanghai and other ten cities was 19962 yuan/square meter, up 1.95% month on month, an increase of 0.80 percentage points over the previous month; The year-on-year increase was 3.83%, an increase of 2.53 percentage points over the previous month. Among them, Shanghai's housing prices rose the most month on month, with the average price rising by 3.77%, and Shenzhen's year-on-year rise of 26.38% remained the first

from the Beijing market, according to the statistics of linkhome Research Institute, the number of new commercial residential buildings (including affordable housing and self owned housing) signed in August was 9291, a decrease of 30.3% over July. After deducting affordable housing and self owned housing, 6001 pure commercial residential units were sold, down 19.3% from the previous month and up 44.1% from the same period in 2014. In August, the average transaction price of pure commercial housing (excluding affordable housing and self owned housing) in Beijing was 29687 yuan/square meter, up 7.6% month on month. In August, the number of second-hand residential units signed in Beijing was 19088, a month on month decrease of 11.1% and a year-on-year increase of 127.1%. The average transaction price was 35760 yuan/square meter, up 1.4% month on month and 8.7% year on year. The total turnover of second-hand houses in June was 125370 units, up 106.8% over the same period last year. Since this year, the transaction scale of second-hand housing in Beijing has been close to 127000 units in the same period of the previous year (2010)

in terms of supply, a total of 18 future housing projects in Beijing received pre-sale permits in August, with a total supply of 5429 units, a decrease of 25.4% over the whole month in July. After deducting self housing, the supply of pure commercial housing was 5222 units, up 102.8% from the previous month and down 18.4% from last year. In 2015, the supply of pure commercial housing was 43572 units, a sharp decline of 41.3% over the same period last year. According to Yahao statistics, 34 projects will enter the market in Beijing in September, and the number of projects entering the market will hit a monthly high this year, including 20 pure new projects

Li Qiaoling of linkhome Research Institute believes that with the arrival of the "golden nine and silver ten", as well as the recent interest rate and reserve requirement cuts and the impact of the new provident fund policy on market sentiment, the market may usher in the peak of supply and demand in the year, and house prices will also show a "steady rise" trend

Zhu Guang, a researcher at E-House Research Institute, believes that with the recent introduction of a series of policies, the recovery of the property market will add new impetus, especially in the first tier and some second tier cities with relatively tight supply and demand structure. It is expected that the real estate market will continue to heat up during the year, and the rise in house prices will also accelerate; Most second tier cities and some third tier cities will accelerate the process of destocking, and house prices will also rise steadily; Most of the third and fourth tier cities will still adhere to the main goal of destocking because of the long inventory removal cycle, and the trend of house prices will also tend to be stable. On the whole, stimulated by favorable policies, the trend differentiation of local property markets will become more obvious

a large number of policy options are available

Capital Securities believes that under the superposition of multiple policies, the industry is expected to usher in a short-term increase in trading volume in the "golden nine and silver ten". However, considering the large differences in markets at all levels and avoiding problems such as excessive rise in housing prices caused by overheated transactions in some regions and policy shifts, the direction of industry regulation in the future is expected to continue to follow the operation ideas of niche and localization, Market transformation and differentiation are still the theme of the industry's return and adjustment stage

Yan Yuejin believes that the real estate industry should become the engine of China's economic recovery at present. Whether the market turnover rises or the price stops falling and rebounds, it is conducive to boosting market confidence and driving the rapid development of related industries. Therefore, the intention of the central government to continue to overweight the property market policy is obvious, that is, it is hoped that the real estate market in September and the fourth quarter can play a role in boosting market confidence, revitalizing stock assets and driving economic recovery

Haitong Securities also pointed out that the government has reflected its determination to stabilize economic growth and promote the healthy development of the real estate market from the highest level. If the real estate market cannot recover effectively, in addition to traditional macro monetary tools such as interest rate reduction and reserve requirement reduction, the government

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